Mathematical Statistician

Department Of Energy Portland, OR
* Duties

Help Duties Summary

* NOTE: This announcement has been amended to extend the closing date. All other information remains the same.*

This announcement is also being advertised under Merit Promotion as announcement DOE-BPA-18-12831-MP. If you intend to apply under a Special Hiring Authority (e.g. Schedule A, VRA, VEOA, etc.), please apply under the Merit Promotion announcement as well.

The Load Forecasting and Analysis is responsible for BPA load forecasting and analysis, including planning, developing, and administration of programs, systems, and work processes that produce official and ad hoc load forecasts and associated analysis, and preparing and maintaining load forecasting processes, policies, procedures, and internal controls. This function is also responsible for building, distributing, and providing data stewardship for load forecasts for use by Power Services (PS) and Transmission Services (TS), customer contact management and administration, billing, metering, and regional coordination. Load Forecasting and Analysis is the designated BPA organization for all internal/external requests for loads information.

A successful candidate in this position will serve as an expert mathematical statistician (Short Term Forecaster) performing scientific work that involves designing, developing, and adapting mathematical/statistical methods and techniques to processes in carrying out short-term (i.e. sub-hourly, hourly, out 2 weeks) load analysis and forecasting activities. This position requires advanced mathematical and statistical theories, principles, concepts and practices and skills in applying this knowledge to: statistical processes, complex mathematics, data or quantitative analytics.

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As a Mathematical Statistician, you will:

* Develop load forecasting methods and models for Short-Term (sub-hourly, hourly, out 2 weeks) for operating level loads through the application of complex mathematical/statistical methods.

* Perform continuing mathematical and statistical investigations into and analyses of comparisons between forecasting models and actual load demands and how the differences affect BPA power and transmission operations.

* Analyze how loads respond to actual (as opposed to forecast) events such as from extreme temperature excursions and provides analyses from a prospective as well as retrospective point of view as to how weather variables (primarily but not limited to temperature) affect loads across the 24 hour period.

* Support power and transmission operations planning activities on a daily basis through the development of forecasting models and adjustments resulting in consistently forecasts that meet established performance requirements.

* Provide timely and high quality subject matter expertise on load changes and support in business operations, marketing meetings, and demand side management meetings. Provide subject matter expertise to external entities in support of energy imbalance markets.

* Formulate, plan, and execute broad or in-depth economic studies based on analysis of loads associated with a subset of requirements customers (including customers with dispatchable generation), and represent those customers with the most complex issues. Analyze loads on a sub-regional level to analyze geographic differences on load.

* Compare forecasts with actual obligations, determine the reasons for differences, and assess the impact of those differences on the reliability of future forecasts, market rates, and systems operations.

* Evaluate research, interprets economic and environmental conditions, and test and adjust mathematical models to ensure a close correlation with reality and to ensure that operational changes are based on reliable data.

Travel Required

Occasional travel - Occasional travel may be required.

Supervisory status


Promotion Potential


Who May Apply This job is open to… ALL U.S. CITIZENS MAY APPLY

Questions? This job is open to 1 group.

* Job family (Series)

1529 Mathematical Statistics

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* Requirements

Help Requirements Conditions of Employment

* You must be a United States Citizen.

* This employer participates in the e-Verify program.

* See "Other Information" section regarding Selective Service requirements.


* Works a non-typical shift starting at 6:30 am. Identified by Human Capital Management (HCM) as an essential position. In the event of an emergency they would be called up immediately as part of the Security and Continuity of Operations plans for on-going daily operations of the federal system.

* When you apply you will be asked a series of questions to determine your eligibility for employment and your qualification for this position specifically. You must answer all of these questions completely and truthfully.

* A preliminary background check must be completed before a new employee can begin work. Current Federal employees or other individuals with an existing completed background investigation may not be required to undergo another background check.



A. Degree that included 24 semester hours of mathematics and statistics, of which at least 12 semester hours were in mathematics and 6 semester hours were in statistics.

* OR-

B. Combination of education and experience at least 24 semester hours of mathematics and statistics, including at least 12 hours in mathematics and 6 hours in statistics, as shown in A above, plus appropriate experience or additional education.


A qualified candidate's online application and resume must demonstrate at least one year of specialized experience equivalent to the next lower grade level (GS-12) in the Federal service. Specialized experience for this position is defined as: (1) Apply analytical, mathematical and statistical theories, methods and techniques (e.g., neural networks models, Fourier transformation models, learning based applications, expert systems) to develop, coordinate, and implement studies, analyses, and forecasts of short-term operational demand, and (2) Utilize SAS, SQL, R or other similar application to write statistical computer programs, analyze data using probability statistics and trend analysis, and design and perform computer simulations.

There is no substitution of education for experience at the GS-13 level.

Your application and resume should demonstrate that you possess the following knowledge, skills, abilities and competencies (KSACs). Do not provide a separate narrative written statement. Rather, you must describe in your application how your past work experience demonstrates that you possess the KSACs identified below. Cite specific examples of employment or experience contained in your resume and describe how this experience has prepared you to successfully perform the duties of this position.

* Mathematical Reasoning- Solves practical problems by choosing appropriately from a variety of mathematical and statistical techniques.

* Internal Controls - Knowledge of the principles, methods, and techniques for establishing internal control activities (e.g., authorizations, verifications, reconciliations), monitoring use, and evaluating performance (e.g., identification of material weaknesses).

* Planning and Evaluation - Organizes work, sets priorities, and determines resource requirements; determines short- or long-term goals and strategies to achieve them; coordinates with other organizations to accomplish goals; monitors progress and evaluates outcomes.

* Research -Identifies rules, principles, or relationships that explain facts, data, or other information; analyzes information and makes correct inferences or draws accurate conclusions.

* Computer Skills – Uses computer, software applications, databases and automated systems to accomplish work.

* Modeling and Simulation - Knowledge of the tools and techniques used to develop functional, physical, or prototype models and simulations for test and evaluation programs, the prediction of behavior and phenomena, and to visually communicate concepts.

"Experience" refers to paid and unpaid experience. Examples of qualifying unpaid experience may include: volunteer work done through National Service programs (such as Peace Corps and AmeriCorps); as well as work for other community-based philanthropic and social organizations. Volunteer work helps build critical competencies, knowledge, and skills; and can provide valuable training and experience that translates directly to paid employment. You will receive credit for all qualifying experience, including volunteer experience.

You must meet all qualifications and eligibility requirements by the closing date of this announcement.



This vacancy has a positive education requirement. In order to be rated as qualified, you must provide copies of your college transcripts. Failure to provide copies of your college transcripts MAY result in a rating of "Ineligible".

Education must be obtained from an accredited institution recognized by the U.S. Department of Education. Foreign education must be reviewed by an organization recognized by the U.S. Department of Education. For special instructions pertaining to foreign education and a list of organizations that can evaluate foreign education, see the Department of Education website.